Management Science and Information Technology

Management Science and Information Technology

Enhancing Delivery Reliability Through Simulation-Based Production Time Estimation

Document Type : ODSIE 2025

Authors
Department of Industrial Engineering, Çankaya University, Ankara, Türkiye
Abstract
Objective: Accurate estimation of production times is essential for reliable delivery planning in manufacturing systems. However, inaccurate production time estimates often lead to delays and inefficiencies in production planning. The objective of this study is to develop a simulation-based approach for estimating production times and improving delivery reliability in a fastener manufacturing company.
Methods: To achieve this objective, a discrete-event simulation model was developed using Arena simulation software. The model represents the entire production process from raw material input to the dispatching of finished products. Historical production data and operational parameters were incorporated into the model. Three different scenarios were analyzed to evaluate the effects of stock availability and raw material procurement on production performance.
Results: Simulation results indicate that the average production times are 37.27 hours for bolts, 54.95 hours for nuts, and 81.36 hours for washers, with a total monthly production output of 714 tons. Scenario comparisons demonstrate that stock availability has a significant impact on production efficiency. In particular, delays caused by externally subcontracted washer production become more pronounced when finished product stock is unavailable. Validation against real production data shows minimal deviation between simulated and actual results.
Conclusion: The findings demonstrate that simulation-based production time estimation can provide realistic and consistent delivery time predictions. The developed model offers a practical decision support tool for production planning and enables companies to improve delivery reliability and customer commitment accuracy.
Keywords

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